Gold prices are expected to continue adjusting upwards, resulting in a retail selling price in the country reaching as high as 40,000 baht per baht-weight sooner than previously anticipated. This surge in prices is attributed to increased buying power from central banks of several countries, following expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the mid of this year.
The price adjustment is happening rapidly and strongly. It is likely to touch the 40,000 baht mark sooner than previously anticipated, which was expected to happen towards the end of the year. If the baht does not strengthen, the gold price could adjust even higher, said Mr. Jitti Tansitthipakdee, President of the Gold Traders Association.
Retail gold prices (96.5%) in the country today have continuously increased following the global gold market situation. The opening price surged to 350 baht per baht-weight, followed by two additional price adjustments of 50 baht each, pushing the retail price of gold jewelry to a new high of 39,500 baht per baht-weight before a subsequent reduction to 39,450 baht.
Currently, the resistance level was previously estimated at $2,260, but has now risen to touch the $2,257 level. The next resistance level is projected to be at $2,275, although it is difficult to predict how much higher the retail selling price in the country will rise, as it is influenced by various factors such as exchange rates.
The dynamics of gold trading in the country have shifted from the past, where a price increase would prompt sellers to bring out their gold for sale. Today, more buyers are entering the market as they view gold as a stable asset and anticipate further price increases. In March, gold prices increased by 4,050 baht per baht-weight or more than 10%.
However, there has not been a shortage of gold to fulfill buyers’ demands as seen in the past. Over 90% of gold purchases in the country are in the form of gold bars, as there are no extra costs involved compared to purchasing gold jewelry.
The behavior of buyers has changed, as more people are buying gold, believing that prices will continue to rise. In March, gold prices increased rapidly, with daily adjustments of 150 baht in January-February, increasing to 250 baht in March. The resistance level in the global market is estimated to be $2,260-2,280, while the resistance level for gold bars in the country is estimated to be 39,250 baht,” said Mr. Jarunvat Saksri, Director of Investment Advisory, Classic Osiris Futures Co., Ltd.
When there is high risk, trading activity should be reduced. The upward adjustment may accelerate faster than expected, but if it retraces down to touch 38,450 baht, it would signal a negative trend, added Mr. Jarunvat.
