Facing up to Thailand’s role as Asean chair

As Thailand gets ready to chair Asean next year, a sense of deja vu is embeding in. The last time Thailand held its rotational turn at Asean’s helm from July 2008 to December 2009, it was weakened by domestic street demonstrations that wound up interrupting high-level conferences and quickly sending out Asia-Pacific leaders house too soon. Owning up to what took place, it needs to be stated that the Thai hosting of Asean-centred tops at that time was an utter mess.

At problem this time is whether Thailand is at threat of more domestic disruptions that might once again hinder Asean-based regionalism throughout the Thai chairmanship. The brief response remains in the unfavorable due to the fact that the Thai political landscape now has a various setting. However to reduce drawback threats, Thailand must “ring-fence” its Asean chairmanship by producing a self-governing policy and functional area to do the job to the very best of its capability and cultivating a domestic agreement to underpin this plan.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak teaches International Relations and directs the Institute of Security and International Research Studies at Chulalongkorn University

To be sure, nobody wishes to see anything in the area of 2008-09. When Thailand started chairing Asean then, there was much optimism due to the fact that the late Surin Pitsuwan was likewise using up the function of Asean secretary-general. A Thai statesman as Asean’s primary diplomat and representative while Thailand was the Asean chair appeared like the ideal dish for accomplishment and success. However Thai politics tossed a spanner in the works.

At that time, protesters outfitted in yellow and red at the same time took turns in the streets.

Initially, it was the pro-establishment yellows, arranged under individuals’s Alliance for Democracy. As in 2005-06, when the PAD showed in Bangkok’s streets requiring the ouster of previous premier Thaksin Shinawatra and leading the way for the military coup versus him on 19 Sept 2006, the yellows once again rallied from mid-2008 versus the recently chosen federal government lined up to Thaksin.

As an effect of domestic political brinkmanship and street violence, the December 2008 top conferences, including the 14th Asean Top and the fourth East Asia Top, needed to be held off and divided, the previous rescheduled to February-March and the latter to April 2009.

In early December 2008, Thailand’s judiciary liquified Thaksin’s ruling celebration and successfully unseated then-prime minister Somchai Wongsawat, who took place to be Thaksin’s brother-in-law. As they ended up being disenfranchised, numerous who had actually chosen Thaksin’s Palang Prachachon (Individuals’s Power) celebration in December 2007 ended up being the red t-shirts formed under the United Front for Democracy Versus Dictatorship, which in turn showed on the streets versus the anti-Thaksin and military-backed federal government of Abhisit Vejjajiva after it pertained to power by mid-December 2008.

Although the 14th Asean Top was performed under tight security, the fourth East Asia Top ended up being ignominious. The red t-shirts on 11 April 2009 stormed and inhabited the hotel location in Pattaya City, successfully putting an end to procedures. Amidst the occurring trouble, a few of the EAS leaders needed to scamper onto helicopters to a military base and returned homeward quickly. After duplicated rescheduling, the fourth EAS lastly occurred on 25 Oct 2009. For Thailand’s happy diplomatic custom and organisation, its Asean chairing function in 2008-09 reached an all-time low.

A years on, Thai politics stay dirty. A military junta has actually supervised of federal government for almost 54 months after taking power in Might 2014. It has actually been in power longer than the complete regard to any elected federal government in the past.

The nation’s election schedule and shift back to democratic guideline have actually been postponed time and once again. The most recent federal government promise for a Feb 24 survey, which is quick approaching, ought to be accompanied by the liberalisation and opening of the political area and electoral arena for reasonable play, policy conversation, and citizen mobilisation. Very little of this is taking place. Thailand stays polarised and divided about its method ahead, although the military federal government has actually put a cover on popular dissent and disenchantment for the time being.

On the face of it, political unpredictability and possible instability leading up to and after the election loom. The junta leader and prime minister, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha has actually been coy and cagey about his political goals however it is an open trick that he wishes to continue as post-poll prime minister. The 2017 constitution is set to preserve military authorities. Nevertheless, if citizens turn versus the coup and the military-backed celebrations in huge numbers, the junta will have a tough time governing even if it controls its extension in power.

More street demonstrations versus camouflaged military guideline through a controlled survey are therefore possible. However there are 2 basic distinctions. Any popular program of displeasure is most likely to be civil-military in nature, rather similar to the Might 1992 civilian-led topple of a military program that was chosen through adjustment and collusion with conservative political leaders. Furthermore, the triumphant street presentations in 2005-06, 2008 and 2013-14 inevitably pointed out the crown as their rallying sign.

So regardless of rowdy politics and intrinsic unpredictability, Thailand is not likely to experience paralysing demonstrations as in the current past. The nation must utilize this chance to put a fence around its Asean chairmanship. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs need to be viewed as more independent and less subservient to the junta. New and fresh management neglecting foreign affairs is essential. Thailand has a lot of diplomacy experts however they have actually needed to kowtow to greater authorities that are not constantly proficient and astute.

An Asean program that intends high instead of simply to manage ought to be mooted, challenging and dealing with existential difficulties from geopolitical stress in the South China Sea and the danger of extremism and terrorism to the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar’s Rakhine state. Thailand has the most appropriate profile and collected diplomatic capital to tease out and take on problems and difficulties other Asean chairs might wish to prevent or neglect.

No matter what occurs with the Thai election and power plays and manoeuvres afterwards, Thai civil society, diplomats and other stakeholders ought to persuade the powers-that-be in federal government that Thailand can and need to do better than last time as Asean chair.